| After more than a year of stalling, North | | | | giving economic and security incentives. |
| Korea has agreed to resume negotiations about | | | | |
| its nuclear weapons programs next week in | | | | Pyongyang wants formal pledges from |
| Beijing. But experts and officials note this | | | | Washington that it would not attack the North |
| is the easy step. | | | | in addition to massive aid. Pyongyang has |
| | | | cited a number of reasons and rationales for |
| After the good news about the resumption of | | | | refusing to negotiate, including a charge |
| disarmament talks come the big questions. How | | | | that the United States retains a "hostile |
| much progress will there be? How long might | | | | attitude." |
| it take to reach agreement? Ultimately, will | | | | |
| North Korea ever abandon nuclear weapons | | | | Shi Yinhong, a professor of international |
| completely? | | | | relations at China's People's University in |
| | | | Beijing, says resolution of this conflict |
| The United States, Japan, South Korea, China | | | | depends on compromise by North Korean leader |
| and Russia have been urging North Korea since | | | | Kim Jong Il and President Bush. "Even if the |
| 2003 to give up its nuclear weapons programs, | | | | six-party talks get started this month, I |
| which were developed in violation of | | | | personally feel that prospects for the final |
| international agreements. | | | | settlement are quite bleak," he said. "Will |
| | | | Kim Jong Il be willing to give up his nuclear |
| Then last year, after three rounds of | | | | arms programs? Will the United States change |
| inconclusive six-nation talks in Beijing, | | | | its fundamental position?" |
| North Korea abandoned the process, announced | | | | |
| it already possessed nuclear weapons, and - | | | | Historically, experts note North Korea has |
| at one point - implied it might be preparing | | | | dragged out negotiations as long as possible, |
| to test them. | | | | adapting hostile and conciliatory tones in |
| | | | turn, to see which tactic works and in order |
| Intense diplomatic consultation and some | | | | to extract as many concessions as possible. |
| economic inducements from South Korea appear | | | | Park Young-ho, a senior research fellow at |
| to have brought North Korea back to the | | | | the Korea Institute of National Unification, |
| table. But what will be the benefits of more | | | | says this pattern is at play now. "North |
| negotiations? Many experts say there are few | | | | Korea has calculated what they can get from |
| options beyond talks. But some - like | | | | the United States. But their tactics have not |
| Professor Bruce Cumings, a North Korea | | | | succeeded in inducing concessions from the |
| scholar at the University of Chicago - warn | | | | United States," he said. "That's why they |
| that prolonging talks only seems to benefit | | | | returned to the talks." |
| North Korea. | | | | |
| | | | Analysts say the promise of energy that the |
| "If the six-party talks don't work then North | | | | North desperately needs could make a |
| Korea would have gained some time to make | | | | difference. Electricity, along with tons of |
| more nuclear weapons," said Professor | | | | fertilizer and food aid, are vital to the |
| Cumings. "We'll still be in a very dangerous | | | | survival of the impoverished communist |
| situation, and the re-division of this region | | | | nation. |
| along lines like back in the Cold War would | | | | |
| continue." | | | | In June last year, the United States offered |
| | | | to provide an energy package to the North in |
| The current nuclear crisis erupted in October | | | | exchange for disarmament. The details of the |
| 2002, when the United States said North Korea | | | | offer have not been made public, but U.S. |
| had admitted to running a secret, | | | | Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says the |
| uranium-based nuclear program in violation of | | | | offer is still on the table. |
| a 1994 agreement. | | | | |
| | | | On top of that, South Korea last week |
| Under that deal, a Japanese, South Korean and | | | | unilaterally offered to send huge amounts of |
| U.S. consortium was to supply fuel oil and | | | | electricity across the border into the North |
| build light-water safe reactors in the North. | | | | in exchange for disarmament. South Korean |
| In exchange, Pyongyang agreed to close its | | | | officials say the proffered electricity would |
| Soviet-built nuclear plants, capable of | | | | replace the power plants North Korea would |
| producing plutonium to convert into nuclear | | | | have received under the failed 1994 |
| weapons fuel. | | | | agreement, giving it access to sufficient |
| | | | energy within a few short years. |
| But construction of the light-water reactors | | | | |
| was slow. Pyongyang argued the United States | | | | That still may not be enough to convince Kim |
| was failing to meet its obligations, not only | | | | Jong Il. Chun Hong Chan, a politics professor |
| on energy but also on a pledge to move toward | | | | at Busan University, says Pyongyang is |
| normalizing U.S.-North Korean diplomatic | | | | unlikely to let Seoul control its electricity |
| relations. Washington maintains that the | | | | supply. He also says the North is unlikely to |
| North Koreans have been reneging on the 1994 | | | | give up the one thing - nuclear weapons - |
| agreement from the start, and never intended | | | | that gives it any leverage over its enemies. |
| to give up their nuclear weapons development. | | | | "If North Korea renounces its nuclear |
| | | | programs for good, it means it cannot use the |
| Since the dispute became public, the North | | | | card anymore, and I don't think a country |
| has expelled United Nations nuclear | | | | like North Korea will give up that card for |
| inspectors, pulled out of the nuclear | | | | good," he said. |
| Non-Proliferation Treaty, and threatened to | | | | |
| build more weapons. Name-calling and insults | | | | Despite the lack of certainty, experts say |
| between the two sides have intensified. | | | | the offers on the table form a good basis for |
| | | | serious negotiations. If an agreement is |
| Now, the Bush administration wants North | | | | reached, however, another serious question |
| Korea to "completely, verifiably and | | | | arises: can all sides be trusted to deliver |
| irreversibly" dismantle its nuclear programs | | | | on what they promise? |
| - both uranium and plutonium-based - before | | | | |